French Resistance and Roman Fiction
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A World War 2 Trilogy
By FRED NATH (Novelist and Neurosurgeon)
Fred's Blog
Fred's Blog
Blog
COVID-19 Again
| Posted on 20 March, 2020 at 11:04 |
COVID-19 again. It has come to my attention… That’s the way all unpleasant missives begin, after all, isn’t
it? Look people, there seem to be a lot of you who still don’t
understand what we are facing here. If the epidemic peaks badly like in Italy,
the mortality will quadruple. All the intensive care facilities will be taken
up (average stay is about 8 days in ITU). Infected people will not get
treatment and more and more will die. We bandy figures around like 1% mortality but in Italy, the
mortality over all is over 8% because as facilities get used up there are more
people dying at home without ventilatory support. On the patient info website (https://patient.info/news-and-features/covid-19-coronavirus-myths-debunked)
is a list of misconceptions and myths which are listed to be dismissed. My take
on it is: 1.
The virus does not respect any national
boundaries. You are as vulnerable as anyone else whether you are an Eskimo in
an igloo or Pygmy in Africa 2.
A hot bath makes no difference to the infection 3.
Antibiotics don’t work 4.
A vaccine will take about 6 months to be tested
and used, even if it is possible to develop one 5.
There are no effective drugs 6.
Paper face masks will not help. The air and
droplets you exhale come downwards and at the sides, even over the top of the mask.
The paper will only protect the person you are talking to and surgical masks
only work for a few hours – after that they are useless. 7.
Washing your hands with soap is very effective.
This is because it denatures the fatty molecules that the virus contains
(lipoproteinolytic). If all that is true you may feel
it is hopeless. It isn’t. Our Government’s current strategy will probably work
if people cooperate. 1.
Reduce social contact with others – the less you
go out, the less you are in contact with places and things used by many people,
the less likely you are to contract the disease. 2.
Avoid pubs, clubs, sporting fixtures and anywhere
where there are crowds. 3.
Don’t go to any social gatherings. 4.
Don’t hold meetings at work – use teleconferencing
and video conferencing. 5.
Don’t touch other people and don’t shake hands or
give a reassuring peck on the cheek. 6.
Don’t stand close to people when you speak to them
– space, space, space. 7.
Clean the things you use most often – your phone,
keyboard and mouse, car keys, doorbell, door handles etc. using anti-septic
wipes or fluid. So, what happens then? Even if we are all going to get this virus,
we won’t all get it at the same time and we can benefit from there being
sufficient ITU facilities when we do, so we won’t just die at home waiting for a bed in hospital. When will it be over? New cases will probably have reduced to
reasonable levels by autumn, but we might then see an upward surge as people
start to relax. I read somewhere that no country has an exit strategy. This
may be true, but if a vaccine appears we may yet terminate this disease. So,
fingers crossed. I think most of the world’s virologists will be working on it.
For once there may be global co-operation. I hope so. For all our sakes. And it isn’t just because I miss going to the pub. |
Categories: thoughts
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