French Resistance and Roman Fiction
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A World War 2 Trilogy
By FRED NATH (Novelist and Neurosurgeon)
Fred's Blog
Fred's Blog
Blog
COVID-19
| Posted on 19 March, 2020 at 7:09 |
A nineteenth century traveler called Charles Kinglake published his travelogue of a journey across the Mediterranean
and Middle east (Eothen). I had to study it for ‘O’ levels. At the time I
couldn’t understand why there were frequent references to plague and weird superstitions
about things like: if you have a cold you can’t catch plague. He thought he was
lucky to get a bad head-cold on his journey. Maybe I understand him a little
better now. It seems to me that even when
confronted by facts and scientific truths we still cling to foolish
superstitions in the hope that hope will save us. It won’t. Get used to disappointment
folks. In the current pandemic, we should all accept the few facts that are
available: 1. The virus
spreads like any upper respiratory tract virus – droplets that emanate from
your mouth and physical contact of virus particles on hands with your eyes,
nose or mouth. When you cough, micro-droplets of moisture emanate from your
mouth. In a still atmosphere, they have a range of up to 2 meters. Sneezing is
even more powerful. Speaking results in droplet spread as well but not as
distant as coughing or sneezing. So – keep your distance from others – it’s not
offensive to do so, only sensible. Don’t shake hands. No peck on the cheek.
Wash your hands every time you come home. Wipe all communal surfaces with an
ant-septic agent – that means door handles and your computer mouse and
keyboard. Do it frequently or at the very least when anyone else has used them.
Wipe your smartphone, door keys and car keys. If you go shopping, wipe the
handle of the supermarket trolley before you start pushing it round and when you
go to your car, sanitize your hands before you get in. Wipe the car door
handle, steering wheel and gear stick with an antiseptic wipe before you set
off. 2. Whether or
not you get an infection depends on three things (Koch’s postulates): a.
Host susceptibility and resistance b.
Virulence of the organism c.
Dose of the infecting organism. You need
to think about this because the people most at risk are those who fit the above
criteria. Living with and being in intimate contact with someone who has the
virus means that you have a pretty good chance of catching it and your outlook
isn’t good if you have an illness that compromises your immune system. Stay
away from old and sick people – if you care about them. 3. As far as
I can see reading stuff, 75% of people will get a ‘flu-like illness. 15% will
be seriously ill and between 1% and 2% will die of respiratory or multi-organ
failure. Mortality is highest in old people especially those who have an
underlying illness. Over the age of 80 the mortality may be as high as 20%. So
why are younger people less affected? I have a feeling it’s partly because they
are never still – they are fitter to start with i.e. they have a better
respiratory reserve. They also have a higher metabolic rate and burn off
calories faster. That readiness of the body to raise core temperatures from
metabolism may be a reason for their relative resistance. Most respiratory viruses
take hold best at slightly below core body temperature – that’s why they get
into you through the upper airways, since your nasal temperature is a little
below core temperature. The cell turnover of the ciliated mucous membranes in
the airways is probably better in younger people too, so recovery may also be
better in young people. We can’t get younger, but maybe we should all exercise
more on a regular basis to try to increase over all fitness and metabolic rate.
OK that isn’t fact but there is some logic in there somehow. 4. If you have
had the virus and no longer have symptoms, you probably won’t get it again for
a long time – like resistance to influenza. That doesn’t mean the virus won’t
mutate and change its characteristics in the future, just that this virus will
gradually peter out with time. But… and there is always a ‘but’. It is known
that as a virus passes from person to person, it attenuates, that is, it gets
weaker. A new infection is very virulent but by the time that virus has
infected a number of individuals, it produces less of an illness – the later in
the epidemic you get the virus, the more likely it is that it won’t make you as
ill as it made the first person with it. 5. Herd immunity
is necessary. It’s all about who’s got it and who hasn’t. If you are in a room
with ten people who are not resistant and one of them has the virus,
potentially they all get infected. If you are in a room with nine immune people
and one person is infected, the odds are you won’t be infected. If you then
look at a population of people, eventually as immunity increases, the virus can’t
reach enough people to continue in a big way. The immune people form a kind of
resistance wall, since they can’t pass on the virus to you if they don’t have
it. 6. Dog shit.
Yes, that’s it! The way to think about contagion is, in your mind, to picture
the virus as dog shit. Each time you touch something potentially infected,
think how it would be if you could actually see and smell it. You would never
put your hand in dog poo and then touch your face or shake hands or fail to
wash your hands (regularly). If you want to avoid this virus, think dog shit. 7. The
probability is that we will all be exposed to this virus. Once you accept that
it is easier to come to terms with the future. Some of us will die – hope it’s
not me and I hope it’s not you. There’s more but I’m getting
bored. |
Categories: thoughts
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199 Comments
Reply
Susan Silva
11:51 on 19 March, 2020
Hi Fred,
What is scary is the part about Herd immunity, Was that what was Boris is working on.
Does that mean all us oldies and people with health problems have been used as human guinea pigs?, (just wondering)
Also what is scary is how the army is in,, But think the Brits will be more aware of the consequences now and not how they have behaved over in Benidorm etc. Stay Safe and a big Thank You to all who will be working 24/7 the next few weeks . Susan
What is scary is the part about Herd immunity, Was that what was Boris is working on.
Does that mean all us oldies and people with health problems have been used as human guinea pigs?, (just wondering)
Also what is scary is how the army is in,, But think the Brits will be more aware of the consequences now and not how they have behaved over in Benidorm etc. Stay Safe and a big Thank You to all who will be working 24/7 the next few weeks . Susan
Reply
susan
11:56 on 19 March, 2020
Think the explanation of Dog Poo is really good, for parents to explain to their children for example shopping trollies windows and park playgrounds ( if they are still open)
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