Shopping Basket
Your Basket is Empty
Quantity:
Subtotal
Taxes
Delivery
Total
There was an error with PayPalClick here to try again
CelebrateThank you for your business!You should receive an order confirmation from Paypal shortly.Exit Shopping Basket

A World War 2 Trilogy

By FRED NATH (Novelist and Neurosurgeon)

Fred's Blog

Blog

COVID-19 Again

Posted on 20 March, 2020 at 11:04
COVID-19 again.
It has come to my attention…

That’s the way all unpleasant missives begin, after all, isn’t it?

Look people, there seem to be a lot of you who still don’t understand what we are facing here. If the epidemic peaks badly like in Italy, the mortality will quadruple. All the intensive care facilities will be taken up (average stay is about 8 days in ITU). Infected people will not get treatment and more and more will die.

We bandy figures around like 1% mortality but in Italy, the mortality over all is over 8% because as facilities get used up there are more people dying at home without ventilatory support.
On the patient info website (https://patient.info/news-and-features/covid-19-coronavirus-myths-debunked) is a list of misconceptions and myths which are listed to be dismissed. My take on it is:
1.       The virus does not respect any national boundaries. You are as vulnerable as anyone else whether you are an Eskimo in an igloo or Pygmy in Africa
2.      A hot bath makes no difference to the infection
3.      Antibiotics don’t work
4.      A vaccine will take about 6 months to be tested and used, even if it is possible to develop one
5.      There are no effective drugs
6.      Paper face masks will not help. The air and droplets you exhale come downwards and at the sides, even over the top of the mask. The paper will only protect the person you are talking to and surgical masks only work for a few hours – after that they are useless.
7.      Washing your hands with soap is very effective. This is because it denatures the fatty molecules that the virus contains (lipoproteinolytic).

If all that is true you may feel it is hopeless. It isn’t. Our Government’s current strategy will probably work if people cooperate.
1.       Reduce social contact with others – the less you go out, the less you are in contact with places and things used by many people, the less likely you are to contract the disease.
2.      Avoid pubs, clubs, sporting fixtures and anywhere where there are crowds.
3.      Don’t go to any social gatherings.
4.      Don’t hold meetings at work – use teleconferencing and video conferencing.
5.      Don’t touch other people and don’t shake hands or give a reassuring peck on the cheek.
6.      Don’t stand close to people when you speak to them – space, space, space.
7.      Clean the things you use most often – your phone, keyboard and mouse, car keys, doorbell, door handles etc. using anti-septic wipes or fluid.

So, what happens then? Even if we are all going to get this virus, we won’t all get it at the same time and we can benefit from there being sufficient ITU facilities when we do, so we won’t just die at home waiting for a bed in hospital.

When will it be over? New cases will probably have reduced to reasonable levels by autumn, but we might then see an upward surge as people start to relax.
I read somewhere that no country has an exit strategy. This may be true, but if a vaccine appears we may yet terminate this disease. So, fingers crossed. I think most of the world’s virologists will be working on it. For once there may be global co-operation.
I hope so.
For all our sakes.

And it isn’t just because I miss going to the pub.

Categories: thoughts

Post a Comment

Oops!

Oops, you forgot something.

Oops!

The words you entered did not match the given text. Please try again.

604 Comments

Reply piarnet
18:13 on 11 June, 2022 
lunar force 1 duckboot linen lids throwback hats womens adidas ozweego brown coach 75013 supreme x nike sb dunk low hyper blue mens lone peak
piarnet http://www.piarnet.com/
Reply salankhan
20:03 on 11 June, 2022 
nike air force 1 07 lv8 black white 1990 england jersey for cheap pandora buzz lightyear 21 patch blackhawks for cheap best online clothing stores for women nike aerobill tn
salankhan http://www.salankhan.com/
Reply smukkebryster
22:32 on 11 June, 2022 
nike adapt stockx gocase huawei p30 pro gown silver baltimore orioles new era mlb 5 star 59fifty cap nike knit running hat games zara sequinned velvet dress
smukkebryster http://www.smukkebryster.net/
Reply tzpoker
3:22 on 13 June, 2022 
air jordan 11 hvid low new york mets floppy hat yelp converse all star kids rb hexagonal flat lenses prada red sole shoes 2012 new nfl jerseys baltimore ravens 52 ray lewis black game jerseys wholesale
tzpoker http://www.tzpoker.com/
Reply adgeminco
7:14 on 14 June, 2022 
knit baby earflap hat pattern free 4.0 pandora acorn earrings jordan four white oreo nashville predators 9 filip forsberg white jersey the north face denali 2 hooded fleece jacket vineyard vines long sleeve shirt
adgeminco http://www.adgeminco.com/
Reply nescim
6:16 on 16 June, 2022 
adrian peterson game worn jersey oakland athletics new era mlb blackout 59fifty cap gala party dress prada black bucket hat deportivo saprissa jersey air max wolf grey
nescim http://www.nescim.com/
Reply fanclubes
22:49 on 16 June, 2022 
baunard moncler nike mercurial superfly cr7 all black blue north face feather jacket leather flip case for iphone 11 nike aerobill tn nike womens react metcon
fanclubes http://www.fanclubes.com/
Reply mobilsam
16:43 on 18 June, 2022 
converse cutaway sandals womens nike minnesota vikings 28 adrian peterson purple stitched nfl limited rush jersey black white concord 11 oakley holbrook american heritage nike titans 84 corey davis green mens stitched nfl limited salute to service jersey jersey nhl vintage
mobilsam http://www.mobilsam.com/
Reply sinspi
2:37 on 19 June, 2022 
adidas superstar silber zagreb north face apex barrier jacket butler timberwolves jersey boston red sox dublin hat 300 authentic jordan retro 11 space jam dolphins bucket hat 60cm
sinspi http://www.sinspi.com/
Reply umseek
2:38 on 19 June, 2022 
moncler blue coat mens indiana pacers 0 jeff teague new swingman road navy jersey superdry cami dress basic canvas shoes lebron minneapolis lakers jersey for cheap valentino moncler coat
umseek http://www.umseek.com/
Reply sifaligidalar
2:38 on 19 June, 2022 
pandora beaded chain necklace nike air force1 mid x reigning champ pandora peanuts collection 1990 chicago white sox hat questions royal toe jordans blanc mens 2015 nike nfl kansas city chiefs t shirts 31
sifaligidalar http://www.sifaligidalar.com/
Reply cairnsparency
18:06 on 19 June, 2022 
england training tracksuit junior air max uptempo 95 lakers boys 4th of july outfit jordan jumpman hat jack white grey red nike epic react flyknit men pirate hat preschool craft
cairnsparency http://www.cairnsparency.com/
Reply lucomania
3:49 on 21 June, 2022 
new era destination trucker pandora newlywed charm north face fleece sweater seafoam green fitted hat oakley cargo warriors christmas jersey 2016
lucomania http://www.lucomania.com/
Reply hdcamcrew
3:49 on 21 June, 2022 
mens alexander mcqueen trainers sale nike dri fit hat ebay zion 1 grey adidas zx 500 originals bloomings poloshirt lakers 4t
hdcamcrew http://www.hdcamcrew.com/
Reply lisupplyco
16:54 on 21 June, 2022 
adidas ultra boost 4.0 dna mens yeezy slides 13 pandora taurus nike free 5.0 black junior houston rockets mitchell ness xl reflective cropped snapback cap body warmer womens black
lisupplyco http://www.lisupplyco.com/
Reply leneuf
13:56 on 23 June, 2022 
moncler sceptrum moncler bramant jacket north face l3 down jacket rasta mouse hat no more jordans new balance 501 womens noir
leneuf http://www.leneuf.net/
Reply belljen
13:56 on 23 June, 2022 
prettiest nba jerseys hurricanes new road jersey for cheap different wedding dresses miami dolphins hat walmart xbox skechers go walk astonished football jersey white for cheap
belljen http://www.belljen.net/
Reply netverka
14:21 on 23 June, 2022 
puma rs x puzzle womens boston red sox hat flex fit black keys song philadelphia eagles sideline legend authentic logo dri fit nfl t shirt orange eliza j brand jordan jumpman hat black 10 nike super shoe controversy
netverka http://www.netverka.com/
Reply natbrasil
17:31 on 27 June, 2022 
mens houston astros 43 lance mccullers green salute to service jersey fro systems body warmer strawberry fields dress converse all star grey womens 2012 new nfl jerseys tennessee titans 10 jake locker team color jersey titleist flexfit cap
natbrasil http://www.natbrasil.com/
Reply grasslandip
16:34 on 28 June, 2022 
nike huarache svart burgundy nike air perce one rosso bianca blu toffs football chicago white sox new era 2016 mlb all star game patch 59fifty cap oo9266 nike saints 20 marshon lattimore black mens stitched nfl limited gold salute to service jersey
grasslandip http://www.grasslandip.com/